So what are the chances for peace?

As I near the end of my journey, I feel it is time for reflection. What have I learnt from this experience? Is there any chance for peace? And what next for those who want to stay engaged?

Tonight I want to explore the chance for a peace agreement. No need for rocket science on this one, the prospects are pretty slim.

Why? Well, I wonder if anyone in power really wants peace. The Netanyahu government is not interested, the Abbas government is unable to deliver, and nobody trusts what Hamas says.

But, I also wonder if people here believe in peace right now. The majority on both sides do not believe the other side wants peace, nor that it is possible to live side-by-side in peace and security; and they are probably right.

Finally, I wonder if most people here are not more addicted to land than to peace. For Jews it is about a united Jerusalem and reclaiming other holy Jewish sites in the West Bank. For the Palestinians, it is about the right to return to their homes and their family's homes from before 1948.

So what next, what hope for this region? I can imagine a few scenarios. One option is the status quo. People in Israel continue to live in relative peace and security. Israel continues its military occupation, building settlements and the separation barrier on Palestinian land, and restricting the movement of Palestinians in the West Bank. The Palestinians remain divided (Hamas rules Gaza and Fatah the West Bank), the suffering in Gaza continues (or worsens), and Palestinians in the West Bank are better off economically but increasingly isolated from one another and not free to determine their future or govern their daily lives.

A second option is renewed violence: rocket attacks, another intifada and/or another Israeli military operation. Without a solution to the conflict, the situation will remain volatile. The support for non-violence by President Abbas has not achieved much in terms of concessions from Israel, and a culture of violent resistance remains alive. So long as Palestinians are not free, and so long as they continue to experience injustices in their daily lives, hostilities could flare up at any moment. And, so long as Israelis feel threatened and insecure in their daily lives, military force could be used at any moment.

A third option is to forget the idea of a final peace agreement and look for a temporary solution. This is not ideal, but it is the most pragmatic option available. I found the insight of former head of the Mossad, Ephraim Halevy, particularly persuasive. A long-term truce and provisional borders on the pre-1967 line. Once a temporary solution is in place, it will give the parties time to work out the final details and show if they are both serious about long-term peace. And who knows, it might also create the space for desperately needed confidence-building measures.

So, whilst there might be no chances for a peace deal now, I do believe another solution is possible.

4 days to go...

Meeting Mossad

Today I met a former head of the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency. He had an aura about him, a confidence, a clear-sightedness. I was in awe of him. Plus, he had many interesting things to say, particularly about Hamas.

The starting point was Gilad Shalit. In his opinion, if the Shalit deal goes through, it will remove obstacles between Israel and the Palestinians: "it will be impossible for Israel to maintain the blockade on Gaza," he said, "and Israel and the world will be forced to come to terms with how to deal with Hamas."

He said the option of erasing Hamas has been tried and failed. In Israel's dealings with the Palestinians, they must ensure that Hamas is part of the solution and not part of the problem. He encourages reason and logic when dealing with Hamas, and refraining from dealing with the ideological issues. "Our right to exist does not depend on them," he said, "this should not be a condition to talking with them."

He believes that Hamas is effective, credible and logical, but most of all, have shown they are capable of being in control in Gaza, something which he believes is not the case when it comes to Fatah in the West Bank.

He is not interested in convincing Hamas that their ideology is wrong, but rather, that it is in their self-interest to have an agreement with Israel. He believes that Hamas' proposal of a long-term truce and accepting provisional borders on the pre-1967 line is "a fine idea," because they are capable of implementing it, and because a provisional agreement might be the only thing possible right now.

And what about Iran's influence over Hamas? "Yes," he said, "Hamas receives aid, training and equipment, but Hamas are not a proxy of Iran, they do not take orders from Iran, they do not even have religious leadership."

So voila, insights from the heart of the Israeli intelligence community. What is your take on Israel negotiating with Hamas?

8 days to go...