A breakthrough?

The news in Israel over the past few days has been about a possible deal between Israel and Hamas for the release of the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, in exchange for the the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Gilad Shalit has been held captive by Hamas since June 2006. He is kept in hiding, and denied all contact with the outside world, including from the Red Cross. It is still unclear whether the deal will go through or not, but the mood here is electric.

Sorry for the cliché, but Gilad Shalit has truly captured the hearts and minds of the Israeli people. All around Israel, people hang flags outside their houses and put bumper stickers on their cars, with his face and the slogan "Gilad Still Lives" or "Free Gilad." You can follow his campaign on websites, facebook and twitter.

If the deal goes through, there could be more at stake than Shalit's freedom. It could shift some of the dynamics in the region. First, it could help ease the blockade on Gaza, which is having a crippling effect on the population. Second, the potential deal is understood to include the release of a Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences for murder. Barghouti is popular among the Palestinian people and a possible candidate to replace Mahmoud Abbas as president of the Palestinian Authority.

It seems ludicrous that Israel would release hundreds of prisoners in exchange for just one soldier. But I think there is more to this possible deal than meets the eye. It could help unlock issues that have been frozen for years.

What would a deal mean for relations between Israel and Hamas? And where does a victory for Hamas leave Fatah? Could Marwan Barghouti re-unite the Palestinian people? And if so, will Israel want to deal with him?

The answers remain to be seen. But one thing is for sure, if this deal goes through it will put smiles on a lot of faces, at least for a few hours.

37 days to go...