So what are the chances for peace?

As I near the end of my journey, I feel it is time for reflection. What have I learnt from this experience? Is there any chance for peace? And what next for those who want to stay engaged?

Tonight I want to explore the chance for a peace agreement. No need for rocket science on this one, the prospects are pretty slim.

Why? Well, I wonder if anyone in power really wants peace. The Netanyahu government is not interested, the Abbas government is unable to deliver, and nobody trusts what Hamas says.

But, I also wonder if people here believe in peace right now. The majority on both sides do not believe the other side wants peace, nor that it is possible to live side-by-side in peace and security; and they are probably right.

Finally, I wonder if most people here are not more addicted to land than to peace. For Jews it is about a united Jerusalem and reclaiming other holy Jewish sites in the West Bank. For the Palestinians, it is about the right to return to their homes and their family's homes from before 1948.

So what next, what hope for this region? I can imagine a few scenarios. One option is the status quo. People in Israel continue to live in relative peace and security. Israel continues its military occupation, building settlements and the separation barrier on Palestinian land, and restricting the movement of Palestinians in the West Bank. The Palestinians remain divided (Hamas rules Gaza and Fatah the West Bank), the suffering in Gaza continues (or worsens), and Palestinians in the West Bank are better off economically but increasingly isolated from one another and not free to determine their future or govern their daily lives.

A second option is renewed violence: rocket attacks, another intifada and/or another Israeli military operation. Without a solution to the conflict, the situation will remain volatile. The support for non-violence by President Abbas has not achieved much in terms of concessions from Israel, and a culture of violent resistance remains alive. So long as Palestinians are not free, and so long as they continue to experience injustices in their daily lives, hostilities could flare up at any moment. And, so long as Israelis feel threatened and insecure in their daily lives, military force could be used at any moment.

A third option is to forget the idea of a final peace agreement and look for a temporary solution. This is not ideal, but it is the most pragmatic option available. I found the insight of former head of the Mossad, Ephraim Halevy, particularly persuasive. A long-term truce and provisional borders on the pre-1967 line. Once a temporary solution is in place, it will give the parties time to work out the final details and show if they are both serious about long-term peace. And who knows, it might also create the space for desperately needed confidence-building measures.

So, whilst there might be no chances for a peace deal now, I do believe another solution is possible.

4 days to go...

Extreme measures

Tonight I have no words, I just ask you to watch. Each film is around 9 minutes long. If you do not have time for both, watch a few minutes of each one (it is important to see the end of the second film to understand the message).

18 days to go...

Twists and turns (part four)

I have two more things I want to share with you about Jerusalem that I learnt last week. One, on the separation barrier, told to me by an Israeli woman, and the other, about settlements, told to me by an Israeli man who spends his life monitoring settlement activity in the West Bank.

First, the Separation Barrier. The Israeli woman carefully explained that the decision to build the barrier between Israelis and Palestinians came after a particularly deadly period of terrorist attacks. From 2000-2002, 330 people were killed and 6, 000 were injured in terrorist attacks across Israel. Jersusalem was particularly badly hit. The separation barrier was proposed as a security measure in response to the attacks.

But, she argued, the route of the separation barrier in East Jerusalem defies all security logic. Instead of separating Palestinians from Israelis, the barrier actually includes thousands of Palestinians on the Israeli side, and in some cases even goes through Palestinian villages, splitting them in two. Take a look again at the map. The red line is the route of the barrier, the brown dots are Palestinian villages, and the blue dots are Israeli villages. As you can see, there are lots of brown dots on the Israeli side of the barrier.

She showed me how the route of the separation barrier lies more or less on the municipal boundary (the yellow line) of East Jerusalem, which Israel annexed in 1967. She took me to two villages, Abu Dis and Kafr Aqeb, which had been separated in two by a concrete wall. She spoke of families who have been split apart. 60, 000 Jerusalemites have found themselves on the "wrong" side of the wall. Her conclusion: the barrier is designed to change the demography of East Jerusalem and undermine the prospect of a viable Palestinian state.

Now to the settlements. First, I want to clarify, settlements are not a politically divisive issue in Israel. Both the left and right support settlement construction. In fact, as I learnt from the Israeli guy, more settlement projects were born when the left was in power. We went up to Mount Scopus to see the project of Ma'ale Adumim and the E1 zone (see the map above).

Ma'ale Adumim is the third largest settlement in the Palestinian territories. 35,000 Jewish Israelis live there and most of it was built on private Palestinian land. The Israeli government has plans to expand the municipal boundaries of Ma'ale Adumim and to build an extra 4, 000 housing units. The proposed municipal borders would effectively cut the northern part of the West Bank from the southern part because the only road that connects the two areas passes through zone E-1.

I asked whether the Palestinians could build an alternative road, but I was told that the area is mountainous and any alternative solution would be extremely difficult. Once again, I heard the same message, this project severely endangers the possibility for a viable Palestinian state.

I know that things can and do change: settlements can be evacuated and walls can come down. Just the other day, Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to freeze settlement construction in the West Bank (although, NOT in East Jerusalem). Nevertheless, the situation is pretty scary. Time could be running out for a two-state solution.

Are we prepared to abandon the idea of a Palestinian state? Are we aware of the consequences? What are we hoping will happen to the millions of Palestinians living in a divided West Bank?

32 days to go...

A day of rest (part three)

Tonight will be my first Shabbat in Jerusalem since I arrived and I will spend it with good friends. I can tell you something, I am really looking forward to getting into the spirit of Shabbat.

Shabbat is the day of rest, Chabad calls it "an island in time." It is the day when you are supposed to stop all involvement with the physical world and turn your focus inward, to your inner self, to spirituality. It is the most sacred day in the Jewish calendar (other than Yom Kippur, the day of atonement). I think Shabbat is a terrific ritual. I love the idea that one day a week is dedicated solely to spirituality.

These past few days have been testing. My heart feels heavy. I have struggled to find hope within the borders of Jerusalem. I will share more of my experiences, but for tonight, I am going to soak up some Shabbos soul.

34 days to go...

Visualizing Jerusalem (part one)

I know, I know, I keep coming back to Jerusalem. But, this conflict keeps bringing me back to Jerusalem. It feels like Jerusalem IS the conflict. So please, bare with me.

Today, I went around Jerusalem with an Israeli woman, currently living in Nepal and practising Vipassana meditation. For those of you who do not know me so well, I lived in Nepal for almost two years, and travel regularly to an Ashram in India, where I practice meditation. It seemed quite fitting for me to do a tour with her. We clicked straight away.

She knows East Jerusalem better than anyone else I have met so far, and she inspired me to tell you the story. Tonight, part one.

She started by explaining the different colours on the map.

The green line on the map is the internationally recognised border of Jerusalem. Everything to the left of the green line is West Jerusalem, where 300, 000 Israelis, mostly Jews, live.

The yellow line is the municipal borders of Jerusalem, which is the territory Israel annexed and declared as its own in 1967, but which no other State recognises. Everything between the green and yellow lines is known as East Jerusalem. The territory incorporates seventy square kilometres, which in 1967, contained twenty-eight Palestinian villages with 17, 000 people. Today there are over 250, 000 Palestinians in East Jerusalem.

In the center of the map is a small pale white box. That is the old city of Jerusalem.

The red line is the separation barrier. The solid line is where the barrier is constructed, the dotted line is under construction or planned for construction.

The blue spots are Israeli neighbourhoods. They are considered as illegal settlements by all other States, since it is forbidden to transfer your own population to occupied territory. But, most Israelis are unaware of this, and do not consider the Jewish neighbourhoods in East Jerusalem as settlements. Suburbs like French Hill (just north of Hebrew University) or Gilo (to the south) are as much a part of Jerusalem as Ben Yehuda street (where I spent many nights partying when I was here fifteen years ago). Around 200, 000 Israelis live in these neighbourhoods/settlements.

The brown spots are Palestinian neighbourhoods.

Next, she explained why Israel chose this route for Jerusalem's border.

First, for security reasons. Israel wanted to have military bases on the hills around Jerusalem to protect the city. Second, Israel wanted Jerusalem to be the biggest city in the country. Third, Israel needed as much land as possible, with as few Palestinians as possible.

A key challenge for Israel at the time, was to ensure that Jerusalem kept a Jewish majority, roughly two-thirds of the population. That remains a key challenge for the Israeli government. As a result, many of the policies and practices of the government are geared to maintaining that balance: the route of the separation barrier, the settlements and the house demolitions all point to that goal.

Now I know this might shock some people, but I do not have a problem with Israel encouraging Jews to come and live here and trying to maintain a Jewish majority in the country. I do not believe this policy should be used to harm or oppress the Arabs, Muslims, Christians, Armenians, Bedouins, cave-dwellers and any other minority group in the country, but I am not, per se, opposed to it.

What I do have a problem with, is Israel undermining the possibility of a viable Palestinian state. And what is happening in East Jerusalem, is exactly this. Everyone knows that any solution to this conflict involves East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state. What is going on here though, shows absolute disregard for the aspirations of the Palestinian people.

Now, not everyone likes the idea of two States. In fact, a number of people I speak to think the only way forward is one State, a binational State, that would be the home of the two peoples. This might sound completely far-fetched, but time might just be running out for any other solution.

So, what future do you envisage for these two peoples?

36 days to go...